%0 Journal Article %T Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Number of Visitors in Hengam Island %J Physical Geography Research %I University of Tehran %Z 2008-630X %A Khoorani, Asadollah %A Monjazeb Marvdashti, Shahrbanoo %D 2014 %\ 04/21/2014 %V 46 %N 1 %P 109-122 %! Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Number of Visitors in Hengam Island %K climate change %K Ecotourism %K GCM Models %K Hengam Island %K linear regression model %R 10.22059/jphgr.2014.50622 %X IntroductionClimate have strong impact on tourism and leisure time. Climate as a natural environmentalfactor plays an important role in tourism development in different regions of the world. Climatechange and global warming, due to increasing greenhouse gases have many effects on procedureof tourism areas. Evaluation of predictions on future climate change can reduce these effects ontourism industry. Unfortunately, despite the obvious importance of climate change on tourism,researchers have paid little attention to this topic until the 1980s. Thus, one of the oldestresearches in this region is the examination about the impacts of carbon dioxide on earthwarming and its effects on tourism (skiing Laavrntyds area) discussed by Boyle and Wall. Thisresearch has been done in Canada in 1980. In this study, climate change phenomenon has beenexamined using two scenarios A and B. The effect of climate change on snow condition, snowcover of the region, and ski industry were examined. The results show that this phenomenon hasimpact on the ski industry and shorten duration of the ski season. It should be noted that amongresearches carried out, a few of the issues of climate change was about the effects of climatechange on tourism activities.In another study, climate change has been investigated according to the GCM andregression models. Then, the effects of climate change on the number of visitors have beeninvestigated using economic models such as travel cost (TCM). In some of these studies suitableconditions of tourism in nowadays and in the future (of climate change) has been determined by􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯􀀯∗E-mail: agroclimatologist@gmail.com Tel: +98 9124803242Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 46 (1), Spring 2014 19TCI Index and also effects of time of climate comfort on the number of visitors have beenstudied. The results show that climate change has effects on the number of visitors (Scott et al.,2007; Chotiyaputta and Pongkijvorasin, 2013; Amelung et al., 2007; Hein, 2009; Yu et al.,2010).Few studies on the effects of climate and climate change on tourism have been conducted inIran. In these studies, the relationship between climate impacts and tourism as well as theimpacts of climate change on the tourism industry has been investigated. The results express theclose relationship between climate and tourism activities and the impact of climate change onthe industry (Mohammadi et al., 2008; Ranjbar et al., 2010; Kaviani et al., 2007; Ramezani andAbraham, 2007; Ghaderi, 2010, Bonn, 2010; Ziai et al., 2010; Haji Amini and Ghaffarzadeh,2010; Bakhtiari, 2010). Rainfall and temperature changes and their impacts on tourism wereexamined by Ataee and Fanaee in 2011 in Shiraz. Results of the study indicate that Shirazrainfall and temperature are in two states of without a process and with process, respectively.Temperature process is ascending. This matter could have a major impact on the amount oftourists of this city. Karimi in 2008 have also studies about the relationship between climate andtourism using climate tourism indices such as PET, PMV, SET, ET, and stress pressure indexfor Tabriz City. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on thevisit level in Hengam Island.MethodologyTo achieve the purpose of this research, climatic factors are used as independent variables andthe number of visitors as dependent variable in stepwise multiple linear regression models. Inorder to simulate climate change based on general circulation models (GCMs), LARS-WGdownscaling tool is applied. This stochastic weather generator downscaled the climate ofBandarabass synoptic station by using HADCM3 model and A1B, A2, B1emission scenarios,for 2040.LARS-WG is one of the most popular models for random generation of weather data. Thismodel is used for generating daily rainfall, minimum temperature, and radiation or sunshinehours in a station, for base data and future climate. Table 1-1 represents characteristics of threescenarios used in this study.Table 1. Characteristics of scenarios as used in this studycharacteristics scenarioA1BRapid economic growth, population growth maximum at mid-century and thendeclined, the rapid development of modern technologiesA2Rapid population growth in the world, heterogeneity in economy and in line with theregional growth throughout the worldB1The convergence of the global population, changes in the structure of the economy(Pollutions reduction and introduce clean and efficient technology resources,)20 Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 46 (1), Spring 2014Results and DiscussionThe results show that there is a reverse relationship between temperature and the number ofvisitors in Hengam Island. The number of visitors decrease when temperature rise in warmseasons (spring, summer), and visitors increase with decreasing temperature in the cold season(winter, spring). The results also show that the number of visitors was affected by seasonalchanges in the future. Generally, it is predicted that visits increase in summer and autumnseasons and decrease in spring and winter seasons. The highest visit frequency is predicted forautumn season in the A1B scenario and the lowest belongs to summer in the A2 scenario. Thehighest visit reduction is predicted for spring season in the A1B scenario and the lowestreduction belongs to winter in the B1 scenario.ConclusionThe results show the greatest increasing changes of visits in autumn (according to scenarioA1B) and the smallest increase in summer (according to scenario A2). The main resultsobtained in this study are consistent with similar studies by other researchers. The main resultsare increase of temperature in the regions (Ataee and Fanaei, 2011; Shah Karami, 2007; Abbasiet al., 2010; Massah Bavanat et al., 2010; Babaeian and Najafi Nick, 2010; Ashraf et al., 2011;Abbasi et al., 2010; Azizi and Roshan, 2008; Rahimi and Majd, 2011; Babaeian et al., 2009;Azad Torabi et al., 2010; Babaeian and Kuhi, 2012; Azizi et al., 2008) and (Berrittella et al.,2006; Hein, 2009; Giannakopoulos, 2009; Burki and Elsasser, 2002; Chotiyaputta, andPongkijvorasin, 2013; Yu et al., 2009). But the result is not consistent with the decrease oftemperature in the summer and autumn, which could be due to the specific conditions of eachregion (latitude, location, topography, etc.). %U https://jphgr.ut.ac.ir/article_50622_0199cecba778a8bc932d9ad7f679282c.pdf