بازسازی دیرینه دمای سالیانه شمال استان کرمان با استفاده از اقلیم‌شناسی درختی گونه ارس

A B S T R A C T
In the present study, the temperature parameter has been reconstructed by using the annual growth rings of juniper trees (Juniperus polycopos) in Tengel Raver habitat in the north of Kerman province. Therefore, samples of 95 trees were taken using a growth gauge drill. Counting the number, measuring the width of the rings and matching the time between the growth curves of the trees was done by LINTAB desktop and TSAP Win software with an accuracy of 0.01 mm. The chronology of the region was constructed, detrended and standardized in ARSTAN software for 517 years (1500-2017) and its quality was checked with Cumulative Signal Statistics (EPS) and finally Residual chronology was selected for reconstruction. The relationship between climate and the width of the rings was measured using data from Kerman and Zarand stations and CRU TS4.01 data for the last 116 years of Iran. The results showed that the temperature of the months before the growing season and the month of March at the beginning of the growing season have a positive effect on the width of the rings, and the temperature of the months of April, May and June have a negative effect. Also, the investigations showed the occurrence of the issue of divergence between temperature and growth rings in the last 25 years and the region being affected by global warming in the last two decades. The reconstructed temperature showed a general decrease of 0.5 to 1.5 degrees in the two periods of 1750-1800 and 1700-1500 AD simultaneously with the Little Ice Age event in Europe for the studied area
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In addition to responding to human scientific curiosity, research on the past climate is essential to understand the trends, quiddity, factors, and impact of these environmental changes. One of the most widely used methods of reconstructing climate data for decades and centuries is tree rings. Trees are living climatic evidence that records the changes and fluctuations of climate change that occur annually through their growth. By studying their annual rings, we can better understand paleoclimate conditions. Juniperus Polycopos trees are a valuable species in Dendroclimatology studies due to their longevity and suitable wooden trunk widely distributed in Kerman province. The Juniperus habitat we studied is located in the northern highlands of Kerman province. Using tree rings, data related to the temperature of the past few centuries of the region has been reconstructed, and by studying them, climate change trends have been studied.
 
Methodology
The Juniperus habitat of this study is located at a mountainous massif in the north of Kerman province, between the three cities of Ravar, Zarand, and Kuhbanan, 31° 25’ north and 56°50’ east. Juniper trees in these heights are found in several habitats with higher density and single trees scattered in the mountains, frequently on the southern, southwestern, and western slopes of the habitat at an altitude of 2700 to 3200 meters. 200 samples of 96 trees in the habitat were taken with an increment borer. Rings were counted, and their width was measured by LINTAB desktop and TSAPWin software from bark to the trunk with an accuracy of 0.01 mm. The cross-dating between the growth curves of the trees, done with TSAP software, and the results of GLK, CDI, GSL, CC, and Tv statistics showed the desired quality for the obtained cross-dating growth curves for most of the trees. Based on the obtained growth curves, the chronology of Juniperus trees in the region was made in ARSTAN software by the BiweightRobust averaging method. Then De-trending and standardized by a negative exponential curve. Finally, the Standard chronology was selected for use in studies. The chronology length is 517 years (1500-2017 AD), with a reconstruction confidence period of 252 years. The quality of chronology was measured by the mean correlation statistics of all habitat trees (Rbt), Expressed population signal (EPS), signal-to-error or anomaly ratio (SNR), mean sensitivity (MS), and Autocorrelation (AC1). Then, the relationship between climate and width of the rings was measured using station data of Kerman province and CRU TS4.01 climatic data for Iran-116 last year by Pearson correlation coefficient, and temperature reconstruction was performed using a linear regression model.
 
Results and discussion
As The results indicated, the temperature of the months before the growing season and March at the beginning of the growing season positively affected the width of the rings. The temperature of April, May, and June had a negative effect. In the middle of March, when the growing season in the study area begins, we have the most positive relationship between air temperature and the width of the rings. April and May show weak negative relations with temperature. There is no significant correlation during the growing season, i.e., from April to September. According to the described months, the annual and winter temperatures have a weak positive correlation, the spring and summer temperatures have a non-correlation, and the temperatures of the multi-month periods related to the cold months of the year have a weak positive correlation. The chronology and temperature trends have shown the divergence between temperature and growth rings in the last 25 years. This is the difference between the recorded and reconstructed temperatures of the width of the rings. The past temperature reconstruction in divergent chronologies leads to overestimating the reconstructed temperature. In this paper, the divergence problem is solved by using the long period of CRU data and obtaining the temperature-width correlation of the rings from 1996 onwards. The habitat reconstructed temperature increased about 1.5 degrees over the last two decades compared to the long-term average (517 years). Other periods obtained include a relatively colder period, close to the average in the eight decades of the twentieth century, with a short-term increase in the 1950s and an increase in temperature of about 0.5 degrees compared to the average in 1840, 1850, and 1870. A period of 0.5-degree decrease in 1760-1820 AD, a period of 0.5 to 1-degree increase from 1720 to 1760 AD, and a long period of temperature drops from about 1700 to 1500 AD with different rates of decrease from 0.5 to 1 degree, noted. In general, the reconstructed temperature, except for a warm period from 1700 to 1760, generally showed a decrease of 0.5 to 1.5 degrees in the period 1500-1830 AD, coinciding with the event of the Little Ice Age in Europe for the study area.
 
Conclusion
Results show that the temperature before the growing season and especially in March at the beginning of the growing season directly affects the width of the rings. The positive correlation between March temperature and ring width is due to the beginning of cambium activity during the early growing season. Higher temperatures in March can cause the growing season to start earlier, resulting in a wider ring in the target year. In the warmer months of the year, the width of the rings shows a weak negative relationship with temperature, which can be due to the occurrence of water stress for trees with rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration. Although the start of cambium activities at the beginning of the growing season depends on the increase in average air temperature, moisture is a much more important factor in arid regions such as northern Kerman province and affects the annual growth of the tree. Therefore, increasing the average temperature increases the evapotranspiration of the tree, decreases soil moisture, and shows its negative impact on annual growth. In general, air temperature in the study area in the months before the growing season has a positive effect, and in the months of the growing season harms the width of growth rings. The results of temperature reconstruction in the habitat show two more important periods. Initially, there was a steady drop in temperature between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1830 and 1500 AD, coinciding with the Little Ice Age and studies in other parts of the world, including continental Europe. This indicates that the study area is also affected by differences in the temperature decrease during the Little Ice Age. Another period is the sharp rise in temperature in the last two decades compared to the long-term average indicates that the study area is affected by global warming.
Funding
There is no funding support.
 Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper