Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability, Resiliency and Spatial Risk against Flooding in Sari City

Document Type : Full length article

Authors

1 PhD Candidate in Geographic and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Semnan, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Semnan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Semnan, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
Climate change and urbanization have put societies at the forefront of urban planning management challenges for a sustainable future. Recent studies show that climate change is likely to increase the hydrological cycle and increase the probability of severe weather events such as droughts and flood. Urbanization has increased the flood in recent decades with increasing levels of impenetrable and changing the flow paths. A flood itself is a natural phenomenon that is usually associated with positive consequences. However, when the flood occurs in the urban environment, it has devastating consequences for residents, in terms of property destruction as well as a threat to human health. The sensitivity of the elements depends on the readiness of the flood and the ability to deal with the event. The vulnerability of urban elements depends on the characteristics of building structures, services, equipment and fittings, the mobility of equipment and materials available. Vulnerability and Flood Resilience Assessment Methods, based on GIS Modeling and Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM), have increasingly been used to evaluate the hazard risks in settlements.
 Due to precipitation changes and increase in impenetrable surfaces in northern Iran, the probability of occurrence of flood has increased in these areas. Therefore, this research has been conducted with the purpose to assess the integrated vulnerability, resilience and risk taking of Sari City against potential occurrence of flood. 
Materials and methods
The data used in this research are including the statistical blocks of the city of Sari and the census data for 2017 from the Iranian Statistics Center, as demographic information, economic data and properties of residential units at the level of urban blocks. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) has also been derived from the American Geological Survey and used in the analysis. Exploring in the research literature and existing data helped us determine indicators for analysis. After determining the criteria and sub criteria, we have used the AHP questionnaire according to expert opinion, the criteria and sub criteria are compared and ranked in a pair.   
Results and discussion
The weight of vulnerability and resilience indicators in different dimensions was obtained using expert opinion and AHP method mentioned in the methodology. According to the results, the spatial vulnerability of the later environmental flood has a higher weight and has a higher value in resilience to the flood of socioeconomic dimension. The central parts of the city have a higher resilience than the periphery of the city and the southern part of the city has a very low resilience. In many traditional approaches to flood risk assessment, vulnerability is considered equivalent to risk level. This is despite the fact that risk-taking today is measured by vulnerability and resilience. 
Conclusion
The research had assessed the vulnerability, resilience, and spatial resolution of the Sari city in flooding conditions with an integrated approach. Urban blocks of Sari have been selected as the basis for measurements in order to make the necessary calculations to achieve the goal. Therefore, in this research, the flood has not been simulated and only vulnerability and resilience of urban structures have been evaluated in the urban blocks. The final output was the production of maps for vulnerability, resilience and spatial risk-taking for the urban blocks of Sari. According to the results, more than 600 hectares of the urban areas of Sari have high and very high vulnerability. Meanwhile, more than 800 hectares of the area  has a high and very high resilience. According to these results, high and very high levels of risk taking in Sari are about 600 hectares. Compared with other studies, there has not yet been an article on the assessment of vulnerability and spatial resilience in flood conditions in the city of Sari. In 's research using f including: distance from the river, runoff coefficient, CN coefficient, population density, residential density, slope, land use, age of the building and open space of Sari in terms of risk Flood zoned. The results Mahmoud Zadeh and Bakui based on fuzzy analysis showed that the highest flood risk of Sari were located in the center and south parts of the city. Their flood zoning map showed that 24% of Sari was in a very high risk area and 37% of that was very low in flood risk. However, the basic principles of flood risk taking require a vulnerability assessment, resilience and then risk-taking. The occurrence of natural disasters today is a repetitive phenomenon that in some cases is accompanied by severe material-spiritual damage. Therefore, academic experts and planners are trying to assess different approaches and patterns by developing appropriate plans in line with damage reduction of natural disasters. 

Keywords

References

ابراهیمی‏پور، م. و زیاری، ک. (1397). پهنه‏بندی زمین‏های شهری در برابر خطر ناشی از سیلاب با رویکرد تاب‏آوری کالبدی (مطالعة موردی: رودخانة چشمة کیله)، فصل‏نامة نگرش‏های نو در جغرافیای انسانی، ش 1.
اسماعیل‏پور، ز.؛ قادری، ک. و سیاری، ن. (۱۳۹۴). شبیه‎سازی رواناب شهری با استفاده از مدل (SWMM) مطالعة موردی: شهرستان بابل، محدودة کمربندی غربی، سیزدهمین همایش سراسری آبیاری و کاهش تبخیر، کرمان، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان.
اسماعیلی علویجه، ا.؛ کریمی، س. و علوی‏پور، ف. (1396). ارزیابی آسیب‏پذیری مناطق شهری در برابر سیل با منطق فازی (مطالعة موردی: منطقة 22 تهران)، فصل‎نامة علوم و تکنولوژی محیط زیست.
امیری، ن. (1390). روش محاسبة شاخص توسعة انسانی، مجلة اقتصادی‏- ماهنامة بررسی مسائل و سیاست‏های اقتصادی، ش 12.
جوادی، م.؛ باقری، م.؛ وفاخواه، م. و غلامی، ش. (1393). تأثیر پخش سیلاب بر خصوصیات فیزیکی خاک (مطالعة موردی: پخش سیلاب دلیجان، استان مرکزی)، پ‍‍ژوهش‎نامة مدیریت حوضة آبخیز، ش 9.
رضایی، پ. (۱۳۹۷). تعیین پهنة سیل‏گیر با استفاده از GIS و مدل هیدرولیکیHEC-RAS) ) (مطالعة موردی: رودخانة گوهررود در محدودة شهر رشت)، فصل‎نامة جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، ش 1.
صرافی، م.؛ ثروتی، م.؛ پورموسوی، م.؛ درفشی، خ. و قهرودی تالی، م. (1391). ارزیابی آسیب‏پذیری ناشی از سیلاب در ‏شهر تهران، فصل‏نامة علمی‏- پژوهشی امداد و نجات، ش 3.
قهرودی، م.؛ سلطانی، ش.؛ درفشی، خ. و نوروزی، ر. (1396). آسیب‏پذیری تأسیسات آب و فاضلاب شمال تهران در مقابل رواناب (منطقۀ یک آبفا)، مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی، ش 1.
محمودزاده، ح. و باکویی، م. (1397). پهنه‎بندی سیلاب با استفاده از تحلیل فازی (مطالعة موردی: شهر ساری)، فصل‏نامة مخاطرات محیط طبیعی، ش 18.
موسوی، س.؛ احمدی، ح. و قدوسی، ج. (1393). بررسی اثرات توسعة شهری بر رفتار هیدرولوژیکی (مطالعة موردی: شهر ساری)، بیست‏ویکمین همایش ملی ژئوماتیک.
Amiri, N. (2012). Method of calculation of human development index, Economic Magazine - Monthly Review of Economic Issues and Policies, No. 12.
Bates, B. C.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Wu, S. and Palutikof, J. P. (2008). Climate change and water. Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC secretariat, Geneva, Climate Change Policy with a Renewed Environmental Ethic, 21: 85-101.
Becker, P. (2014). Sustainability science: Managing risk and resilience for sustainable development, Newnes.
Bertilsson, L. and Wiklund, K. (2015). Urban Flood Resilience-A case study on how to integrate flood resilience in urban planning. TVVR-15/5005.
Birgani, Y. T. and Yazdandoost, F. (2018). An Integrated Framework to Evaluate Resilient-Sustainable Urban Drainage Management Plans Using a Combined-adaptive MCDM Technique, Water Resources Management, 32(8): 2817-2835.
Boudou, M.; Danière, B. and Lang, M. (2016). Assessing changes on urban flood vulnerability through mapping land use from historical information, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12: 161-173.
Chen, Y.; Zhou, H.; Zhang, H.; Du, G. and Zhou, J. (2015). Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization, Environmental research, 139: 3-10.
Cho, S. Y. and Chang, H. (2017). Recent research approaches to urban flood vulnerability, 2006–2016, Natural Hazards, 88(1): 633-649.
Ebrahimi Pur, M. and Ziari, K. (2018). Zoning of Urban Lands at Risk Due to Floods by Physical Resilience Approach (Case Study: Cheshmeh Kile River), Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, Issue 1.
Edelenbos, J.; Van Buuren, A.; Roth, D. and Winnubst, M. (2017). Stakeholder initiatives in flood risk management: exploring the role and impact of bottom-up initiatives in three ‘Room for the River’projects in the Netherlands, Journal of environmental planning and management, 60(1): 47-66.
Esmail Pur, Z.; Ghaderi, K. and Sayari, N. (2015). Urban Runoff Simulation Using Model (SWMM) Case Study: Babol City, Western Belt Area. 13th National Conference on Irrigation and Evaporation Reduction, Kerman, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman.
Esmaili Alavijuye, A.; Karimi, S. and Alavi Pur, F. (2017). Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Areas with Fuzzy Logic (Case Study: Tehran District 22), Environmental Science and Technology Quarterly.
Fedeski, M. and Gwilliam, J. (2007). Urban sustainability in the presence of flood and geological hazards: The development of a GIS-based vulnerability and risk assessment methodology, Landscape and urban planning, 83(1): 50-61.
Gaňová, L.; Zeleňáková, M.; Purcz, P.; Diaconu, D. C.; Orfánus, T. and Kuzevičová, Ž. (2017). Identification of urban flood vulnerability in eastern Slovakia by mapping the potential natural sources of flooding-implications for territorial planning, Urbanism Architecture Constructions, 8(4): 365-376.
Ghahrudi, M.; Soltani, Sh.; Derafshi, Kh. and Noruzi, R. (2016). Vulnerability of North Tehran Water and Wastewater Facilities to Runoff (Area One), Environmental Risk Management, No. 1.
Ghahrudi, M.; Soltani, Sh.; Derafshi, Kh. and Noruzi, R. (2018). Vulnerability of sewage and water facilities in north of Tehran against runoff (One Abfa Area), Managing environmental hazards, 4(1).
Javadi, M.; Bagheri, M.; Vafakhah, M. Gholami, Sh. (2014). Influence of flood propagation on soil physical properties (Case study: Delijan flood propagation, Markazi province), Watershed Management Research Paper, No. 9.
Kienberger, S. (2012). Spatial modelling of social and economic vulnerability to floods at the district level in Búzi, Mozambique, Natural Hazards, 64(3): 2001-2019.
Koks, E. E.; Jongman, B.; Husby, T. G. and Botzen, W. J. (2015). Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management, Environmental science & policy, 47: 42-52.
Lee, G.; Choi, J. and Jun, K. S. (2017). MCDM approach for identifying urban flood vulnerability under social environment and climate change, Journal of Coastal Research, 79(sp1): 209-213.
Lee, G.; Jun, K. S. and Chung, E. S. (2013). Integrated multi-criteria flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS and Delphi technique, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(5): 1293-1312.
Mahmudzade, H. and Bakui, M. (2018). Flood Zoning Using Fuzzy Analysis (Case Study: Sari City), Journal of Environmental Hazards, No. 18.
Matyas, D. and Pelling, M. (2015). Positioning resilience for 2015: the role of resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation in disaster risk management policy, Disasters, 39(s1): s1-s18.
Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Schwarze, R. and Thieken, A. (2010). Review article" Assessment of economic flood damage", Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(8): 1697-1724.
Morrison, A.; Westbrook, C. J. and Noble, B. F. (2018). A review of the flood risk management governance and resilience literature, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11(3): 291-304.
Musavi, S.; Ahmadi, H. and Ghodusi, J. (2014). Investigation of the effects of urban development on hydrological behavior (Sari case study), 21st National Geomatics Conference.
Radmehr, A. and Araghinejad, S. (2015). Flood vulnerability analysis by fuzzy spatial multi criteria decision making, Water resources management, 29(12): 4427-4445.
Ran, J. and Nedovic-Budic, Z. (2016). Integrating spatial planning and flood risk management: A new conceptual framework for the spatially integrated policy infrastructure, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 57: 68-79.
Sayers, P.; Yuanyuan, L.; Galloway, G.; Penning-Rowsell, E.; Fuxin, S.; Kang, W.; ... and Le Quesne, T. (2013). Flood risk management: A strategic approach.
Rezai, P. (2018). Determination of flood catchment area using GIS and hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) (Case study: Goharrood River in Rasht city), Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, No. 1.
Sarafi, M.; Servati, M.; Pur Musavi, M.; Derafshi, Kh. and Ghahrudi Tali, M. (2012). Flood Vulnerability Assessment in Tehran, Rescue Research Quarterly, No. 3.
Su, H. T.; Cheung, S. H. and Lo, E. Y. M. (2018). Multi-objective optimal design for flood risk management with resilience objectives, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 32(4): 1147-1162.
Sunarharum, T. M.; Sloan, M. and Susilawati, C. (2015). Re-framing infrastructure investment decision-making processes: a preliminary scoping study for urban flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia. In The Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of the International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction (8-10 July 2013) (pp. 292-299), Queensland University of Technology.
Uyan, M. (2013). GIS-based solar farms site selection using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in Karapinar region, Konya/Turkey, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28: 11-17.
Physical Geography Research
Volume 51, Issue 3
October 2019
Pages 431-445

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 31 December 2018
  • Revise Date: 11 May 2019
  • Accept Date: 11 May 2019

Share

How to cite

Statistics