Evaluation of Landuse Changes with Emphasis on Green Land Use Planning in Kashan Plain Watershed

Document Type : Full length article

Authors

1 Phd. Student, Faculty of Humanities, University of Lorestan, Khorramabad, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Humanities, University of Lorestan, Khorramabad, Iran

3 Professor, Faculty of Range land & watershed management, University of Gorgan, Gorgan, Iran

4 Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
Land use is generally referred to as the use of lands in the present state. Land cover and its changes can cause greenhouse gas emissions leading to climate change. Climate change and land use can interact with each other. This is of great importance in sensitive environments especially in arid and desert areas. These areas are sensitive to climate change and land use. In the case of climate change detection, the drought has been considered in recent years. Iran is one of the countries suffered heavy from this natural threat because of being in the arid and desert region of the world. Various researchers have pointed to the relationship between land and climate change around the world (Cuo, Zhang, GAO, Hao, Cairang, 2013; Delgado, Gaspari, Kruse, 2015). The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between land use and land use planningin in relation to climate change. This research proposes the new Land Use Planning approach in relation to land use as a management tool for climate change mitigation and carbon footprint reduction.
Material and methodes
Study area
Kashan watershed covers about 5574 square kilometers of the area and located in the north Isfahan province and southwest Tehran. The climate of the study area is classified in arid or desert climate. In the plain it is classified in the semi-arid climate. The tools and methods in this research include:  
A. Land use
In order to study land use changes, we have used landsat images incuding Landsat 5 MSS images, 1985; Landsat-7 ETM+ images, 2000, and Landsat 8 OLI, 2017.
B. Climate change
a)    Weather data available over the 30 year period from 1988 until 2017 at 7 meteorological stations: Kashan, Isfahan, Golpaiegan, Natanz, Meime, Ardestan, Najafabad (table1). The historical data were obtained from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO)
b)   The model was validated using three methods: 1) Coefficient of Determination ( , 2) root-mean-square error (RMSE), 3) Mean Squared Error (MAE)
C. Low Carbon Land Use Planning (Green land use planning)
Green land use planning (GLUP) is to determine the suitable use of each region based on its potential, so that a land use with lower carbon levels can be selected in place of more carbon levels.
C1. Standardization of constraints and limitations
C2. Weighing the constraints and limitations
C3. Multi-criteria evaluation by weighted linear combination (WLC)
Results and discussion
Classification of images
The results of the changes showed that agricultural land use area increased by 5.7%, bare land area by 0.61%, and residental area by 0.32% of the total study area during the period (1985-2000). Range land, Sanddune Salt land, and Garden have decreased by 5.05, 0.92, 0.57 and 0.1%, respectively. The results of investigating the changes during the time period (2000-2017) show that salt land, residental and garden areas are increased by 12.20, 1.07 and 0.28 percent, respectively. Range land, agriculture, bare land and sanddune area were 5.62, 4.69, 2.52 and 0.73 percent, respectively.
Validation of downscaling model
The results of the indicators show that the SDSM model has a more accuracy than the daily scale in the monthly and seasonal and annual scales for the downscaling the precipitation parameter in the studied watershed. In general, this model has a good performance for downscaling the region precipitation.
The results of Validation of downscaling model
Based on the results of the SDSM, RCP4.5 predicts the lowest average rainfall of 0.2 in December and the highest average rainfall of .08 in May.
Drought assessment
The results of 12 month SPI index for the study period during 1950-2050 show that in 1985 there was a drought in the range from 1.5 to 1.99, which indicates the severe drought on the studied area. In 2000, the drought is located in the 0.99-99 range, which represents a near-normal drought. In 2017, the average 12-month SPI is reduced, and drought is in the 1.99-to-1.5- range, which indicates hard drought.Based on the SPI index for the next years 2030 (2011-2050), under the 4.5 scenario, the drought is reduced compared to the baseline and is located on the range of  -2 and less range, which indicates a severe drought, indicating that the monthly precipitation will decrease in 2030 during the climate change.
Evaluation of ecological land capability
Ecological capability was evaluated for 8 land uses including Agriculture, range land, forestry, conservation, Extensive and intensive tourism and urban and rural development.
Green Land Use Planning (Low Carbon Land Use Planning)
The green land use planning map was created with priority for land uses with less water consumption and less carbon to reduce the impact of climate change on the Kashan plain watershed.
Conclusion
The trend of change in Kashan plain watershed shows that at the same time when the study began, the increasing trend of climate change (1985) developed the agricultural, residential and industrial land araes.
In general, these applications have the greatest impact on the rate of evapotranspiration and reduction of water resources and increased greenhouse gas emissions. With the continuation of the climate change trend and the negative trend of drought, the agricultural land and range land areas have decreased and increased against the salt land areas. This situation is due to the reduction of agricultural land efficiency due to soil salinity and drying of irrigation wells and the abandonment of these lands, especially in the salt lake and the northern lands of Aran, Bidgol, Abu Zayedabad and Nasr Abad.

Keywords

References

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Physical Geography Research
Volume 51, Issue 4
January 2020
Pages 613-632

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  • Receive Date: 20 October 2018
  • Revise Date: 22 September 2019
  • Accept Date: 22 September 2019

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