Paleo Temperature Reconstruction using Juniperus Species Dendroclimatology in the North of Kerman Province

Document Type : Full length article

Authors

Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

A B S T R A C T
In the present study, the temperature parameter has been reconstructed by using the annual growth rings of juniper trees (Juniperus polycopos) in Tengel Raver habitat in the north of Kerman province. Therefore, samples of 95 trees were taken using a growth gauge drill. Counting the number, measuring the width of the rings and matching the time between the growth curves of the trees was done by LINTAB desktop and TSAP Win software with an accuracy of 0.01 mm. The chronology of the region was constructed, detrended and standardized in ARSTAN software for 517 years (1500-2017) and its quality was checked with Cumulative Signal Statistics (EPS) and finally Residual chronology was selected for reconstruction. The relationship between climate and the width of the rings was measured using data from Kerman and Zarand stations and CRU TS4.01 data for the last 116 years of Iran. The results showed that the temperature of the months before the growing season and the month of March at the beginning of the growing season have a positive effect on the width of the rings, and the temperature of the months of April, May and June have a negative effect. Also, the investigations showed the occurrence of the issue of divergence between temperature and growth rings in the last 25 years and the region being affected by global warming in the last two decades. The reconstructed temperature showed a general decrease of 0.5 to 1.5 degrees in the two periods of 1750-1800 and 1700-1500 AD simultaneously with the Little Ice Age event in Europe for the studied area
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In addition to responding to human scientific curiosity, research on the past climate is essential to understand the trends, quiddity, factors, and impact of these environmental changes. One of the most widely used methods of reconstructing climate data for decades and centuries is tree rings. Trees are living climatic evidence that records the changes and fluctuations of climate change that occur annually through their growth. By studying their annual rings, we can better understand paleoclimate conditions. Juniperus Polycopos trees are a valuable species in Dendroclimatology studies due to their longevity and suitable wooden trunk widely distributed in Kerman province. The Juniperus habitat we studied is located in the northern highlands of Kerman province. Using tree rings, data related to the temperature of the past few centuries of the region has been reconstructed, and by studying them, climate change trends have been studied.
 
Methodology
The Juniperus habitat of this study is located at a mountainous massif in the north of Kerman province, between the three cities of Ravar, Zarand, and Kuhbanan, 31° 25’ north and 56°50’ east. Juniper trees in these heights are found in several habitats with higher density and single trees scattered in the mountains, frequently on the southern, southwestern, and western slopes of the habitat at an altitude of 2700 to 3200 meters. 200 samples of 96 trees in the habitat were taken with an increment borer. Rings were counted, and their width was measured by LINTAB desktop and TSAPWin software from bark to the trunk with an accuracy of 0.01 mm. The cross-dating between the growth curves of the trees, done with TSAP software, and the results of GLK, CDI, GSL, CC, and Tv statistics showed the desired quality for the obtained cross-dating growth curves for most of the trees. Based on the obtained growth curves, the chronology of Juniperus trees in the region was made in ARSTAN software by the BiweightRobust averaging method. Then De-trending and standardized by a negative exponential curve. Finally, the Standard chronology was selected for use in studies. The chronology length is 517 years (1500-2017 AD), with a reconstruction confidence period of 252 years. The quality of chronology was measured by the mean correlation statistics of all habitat trees (Rbt), Expressed population signal (EPS), signal-to-error or anomaly ratio (SNR), mean sensitivity (MS), and Autocorrelation (AC1). Then, the relationship between climate and width of the rings was measured using station data of Kerman province and CRU TS4.01 climatic data for Iran-116 last year by Pearson correlation coefficient, and temperature reconstruction was performed using a linear regression model.
 
Results and discussion
As The results indicated, the temperature of the months before the growing season and March at the beginning of the growing season positively affected the width of the rings. The temperature of April, May, and June had a negative effect. In the middle of March, when the growing season in the study area begins, we have the most positive relationship between air temperature and the width of the rings. April and May show weak negative relations with temperature. There is no significant correlation during the growing season, i.e., from April to September. According to the described months, the annual and winter temperatures have a weak positive correlation, the spring and summer temperatures have a non-correlation, and the temperatures of the multi-month periods related to the cold months of the year have a weak positive correlation. The chronology and temperature trends have shown the divergence between temperature and growth rings in the last 25 years. This is the difference between the recorded and reconstructed temperatures of the width of the rings. The past temperature reconstruction in divergent chronologies leads to overestimating the reconstructed temperature. In this paper, the divergence problem is solved by using the long period of CRU data and obtaining the temperature-width correlation of the rings from 1996 onwards. The habitat reconstructed temperature increased about 1.5 degrees over the last two decades compared to the long-term average (517 years). Other periods obtained include a relatively colder period, close to the average in the eight decades of the twentieth century, with a short-term increase in the 1950s and an increase in temperature of about 0.5 degrees compared to the average in 1840, 1850, and 1870. A period of 0.5-degree decrease in 1760-1820 AD, a period of 0.5 to 1-degree increase from 1720 to 1760 AD, and a long period of temperature drops from about 1700 to 1500 AD with different rates of decrease from 0.5 to 1 degree, noted. In general, the reconstructed temperature, except for a warm period from 1700 to 1760, generally showed a decrease of 0.5 to 1.5 degrees in the period 1500-1830 AD, coinciding with the event of the Little Ice Age in Europe for the study area.
 
Conclusion
Results show that the temperature before the growing season and especially in March at the beginning of the growing season directly affects the width of the rings. The positive correlation between March temperature and ring width is due to the beginning of cambium activity during the early growing season. Higher temperatures in March can cause the growing season to start earlier, resulting in a wider ring in the target year. In the warmer months of the year, the width of the rings shows a weak negative relationship with temperature, which can be due to the occurrence of water stress for trees with rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration. Although the start of cambium activities at the beginning of the growing season depends on the increase in average air temperature, moisture is a much more important factor in arid regions such as northern Kerman province and affects the annual growth of the tree. Therefore, increasing the average temperature increases the evapotranspiration of the tree, decreases soil moisture, and shows its negative impact on annual growth. In general, air temperature in the study area in the months before the growing season has a positive effect, and in the months of the growing season harms the width of growth rings. The results of temperature reconstruction in the habitat show two more important periods. Initially, there was a steady drop in temperature between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1830 and 1500 AD, coinciding with the Little Ice Age and studies in other parts of the world, including continental Europe. This indicates that the study area is also affected by differences in the temperature decrease during the Little Ice Age. Another period is the sharp rise in temperature in the last two decades compared to the long-term average indicates that the study area is affected by global warming.
Funding
There is no funding support.
 Authors Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper

Keywords

Main Subjects


  1. Alipoor Fard, M., Raeini Sarjaz, M., Pourtahmasi, K., & Nadi, M., (2018). The effect of climatic variables on annual tree-rings width of Persian juniper trees in Kyguran habitat of Lorestan province.Journal of Forest and Wood Products, 70(4), 599-608. [In Persian]
  2. Anchukaitis, K., Wilson, R., Briffa, K., Büntgen, U., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., & Davi, N., Esper, J. (2017). Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews, 163, 1-22.
  3. Arsalani, E., (2013). The relationship between temperature and long-term rainfall in the Middle Zagros region with the characteristics of remote transplantation. Master's thesis, Climatology field, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran. [In Persian]
  4. Arsalani, M., Azizi, Gh., & Khoshakhlagh, , (2012(. Reconstruction of maximum temperature variations in Kermanshah province using tree rings. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 1(1), 97-110. [In Persian]
  5. Azizi, G., Arsalani, M., & Yamani, M., (2012). Reconstruction of October-May Precipitation Variations Based on Tree Rings in Kermanshah City over the 1705-2010 Periods. Physical Geography Research Quarterly44(1), 37-53. [In Persian]
  6. Balapur, Sh., & Mohammadof, T.S., (2014). Principles, methods and application of tree chronology. first edition, Tehran: Jedikar Publications. [In Persian]
  7. Bräuning, A., (1994). Dendrochronology for the last 1400 years in eastern Tibet. GeoJournal, 34(1), 75-95.
  8. Büntgen, U., Frank, D.C., Kaczka, R., Verstege, A., Zwijacz-Kozica, T., & ESPER, J., (2007). Growth responses to climate in a multi-species tree-ring network in the Western Carpathian Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Tree Physiology, 27, 689–702.
  9. Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, JO., Herzig, F., Heussner, KU., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., & Esper, J., (2011). 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science, 4(331), 578-582
  10. Cook, R.E., & Holmes, R.L., (1999). Users manual for Program ARSTAN, Laboratory of tree-ring research. University of Arizona, United States of America.
  11. D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Liepert, B., & Cherubini, P., (2008). On the 'Divergence Problem' in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes. Global and Planetary Change. Elsevier (3–4), 289
  12. Davi, N.,Rao, M.,Wilson, R., Andreu-Hayles, L., Oelkers, R., & D'Arrigo, R., (2021). Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the Central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings. Geophysical Research Letters48(2) 348-379.
  13. Esper, J., George, S., Anchukaitis, K., D'Arrigo, R., Ljungqvist, F., Luterbacher, J., Schneider, L., Stoffel, M., Wilson, R., & Büntge, U., (2018). Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings. Dendrochronologia, 50, 81-90.
  14. Esper, J., Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V., Wilson, R. Graybill, D., & Funkhouser, G., (2003). Temperature-sensitive Tien Shan tree ring chronologies show multi-centennial growth trends. Climate dynamics, 21(7-8), 699-706.
  15. Garcia- Suarez, M.A., Butler, C.J., & Baillie, M.G.L., (2009). Climate signal in tree-ring chronologies in a temperature climate: A multi – species approach. Dendrochronologia, 27, 183-198.
  16. Hai, F.Z., Xue, M.S., Zhi, Y., Peng, X., Yan, X., & Hua, T., (2011). August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since A.D.1385 inferred from tree rings. PALAEO, 5, 703.
  17. Jacoby, G., Solomina, O., Frank, D., Eremenko, N., & Arrigo, R., (2004). Kunashir (Kuriles) Oak 400-year reconstruction of temperature and relation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. PALAEO, 209, 303-311.
  18. Kirchhefer, A.J. (1999). Dendroclimatology on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in northern Norway. A dissertation for the degree of doctor scientiarum, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Tromsø, Norway. p20-25
  19. Kotlyakov, V., Serebryanny, L., & Solomina, O., (1991). Climate change and glacier fluctuation during the last 1,000 years in the southern mountains of the USSR. Mountain Research and Development, 4, 1-12.
  20. Kroori, S., Khoshnevis, M., & Matinizadeh, M. )2011(. Comprehensive studies of juniper in Iran. first edition,Tehran: Pooneh Publishing. [In Persian].
  21. Liu, J., Yang, B., & Qin, C., (2011). Tree-ring based annual precipitation reconstruction since AD 1480 in south central Tibet. Quaternary International, 236 (1-2), 75-81.
  22. Liu, Y., Linderholm, H.W., Song, H., Cai, Q., Tian, Q., Sun, J., & Wang, R., (2009). Temperature variations recorded in Pinus tabulaeformis tree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling Mountains, central China. Boreas, 38(2), 285-291.
  23. Nadi, M., Portahmasi, K., Bazrafshan, J., & Bräuning, A., (2014). Two Centuries of Drought-Tree Reconstruction Using Multivariate Standard Rainfall Index (MSPI) in Javanrood region of Kermanshah. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research, 22 (6), 99-116. [In Persian].
  24. Poursartip, L., & Portahmasi, K., (2005). Climatological study of Juniperus polycarpos and Quercus macranthera in Gorgan Chaharbagh region, M.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran. [In Persian]
  25. Pourtahmasi, K., Poursartip, L., Bräuning, A., & Parsapjoo, D., (2009). Evaluation of Radial Growth of Juniper (Juniperus polycarpos) and Oak (Queacus macranthera) Trees in the North and South Slopes of Alborz in Gorgan's Chahar Bagh Region. Journal of Forests and Wood Products, Faculty of Natural Resources, 62(2), 159-169. [In Persian]
  26. Ramezani Gourabi, B., & Shirzad, F., (2010). The Study of Drought Effects on Poplar Tree Ring Growth in the Soome-e-sara Township - Guilan. Physical Geography Research Quarterly41(67). 107-117. [In Persian]
  27. Sass-Klaassen, U., Leuschner, H.H., Buerkert, A., & Helle, G., (2007). Tree-ring analysis of Juniperus excelsa from the northern Oman mountains. Tree rings in Archaeology, Climatology and Ecology, (3-6), 83 – 90
  28. Shah, S.K., Pandey, U., & Mehrotra, N., (2019) A winter temperature reconstruction for the Lidder Valley, Kashmir, Northwest Himalaya based on tree-rings of Pinus wallichiana. Clim Dyn,53, 4059–4075.
  29. Song, M., Yang, B., & Ljungqvist, F.C., (2021). Tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for East Asia over the past 700 years.  China Earth Sci.64. 872–889
  30. Wilson, R.J., & Anchukatitis. K., (2017). Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews, 163, 1-22.
  31. Zarean, H., Yazdanpanah, H., Movahedi, S., Jalilund, H., & Momeni, M., (2015) Reconstruction of more than a century of annual temperature from Persian oak tree rings (Quercus persica) in the forests of Zagros (Case study of Dena region). Geographical Research Quarterly, 30(1), 153-166. [In Persian].
  32. Zhang, T., Zhang, R., Jiang, S., Bagila, M., Ainur, U., & Yu, S., (2019). On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in the Alatau Mountains, Central Asia: A Study of the Responses of Schrenk Spruce Tree-Ring Width to Climate under the Recent Warming and Wetting Trend. Atmosphere, 10(8):473.
  33. Zhisheng, An,. Liu, Y., & Linderholm, H.W.,  (2009). Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings. Sci. China Ser. D-Earth Sci, 52, 348–359