تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در برنامه‌ریزی فعالیت‌های نظامی در مرزهای غربی ایران

ABSTRACT
Climate change, recognized as one of the most significant threats of the 21st century, profoundly impacts not only the environment and global economy but also the security and military operations of nations. Consequently, alterations in weather patterns, coupled with their unpredictability, pose a serious threat to military infrastructure. This study aims to investigate the variations in climate parameters affecting the normalized Military Climate Index (MCI) across the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Ilam, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Khuzestan. To achieve this, the necessary climate parameters were initially sourced from the Meteorological Organization. Subsequently, after selecting the most suitable Global Climate Model (GCM), the climate parameters for each station were downscaled using the LARS-WG model through to the year 2100. The results revealed that at all the stations examined, the MCI index decreased from late spring to the end of summer, indicating challenging conditions for military operations. Conversely, Ahvaz in late autumn and early winter, Ilam in autumn and early spring, Kermanshah and Sanandaj in early autumn and spring, and Urmia in spring, all exhibited favorable conditions due to the elevated MCI index. Ultimately, it is recommended that any military planning, including training, education, maneuvers, and strategy design, be informed by an understanding of climate change conditions and climate comfort indices, necessitating the implementation of specific measures. Thus, reviewing and adapting defense strategies to the climate change conditions of each region is crucial.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges, particularly in the environmental, political, and economic domains, due to its far-reaching impacts on various facets of human life. These changes have precipitated global warming and an increase in extreme weather events, which have had profound consequences for global security, food security, poverty, and conflict. In recent years, climate models have been utilized to predict and analyze changes in climate variables over the coming decades. Specifically, by providing projections of shifts in key climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, these models enable policymakers and researchers to devise plans for a range of potential future conditions. Such forecasts also inform the development of strategies aimed at mitigating negative impacts and capitalizing on potential opportunities. One established method for predicting climate change involves the use of IPCC emission scenarios and Global Climate Models (GCMs). A review of existing literature reveals that climate change can affect both the operational capabilities and military security of nations, both directly and indirectly. These effects include diminished performance of military equipment under extreme heat, rising defense expenditures required for adaptation to new climate realities, and shifts in military strategies to counter emerging climate-related threats. Consequently, it is crucial for Iranian policymakers and defense planners to better comprehend the implications of climate change in order to devise strategies that enhance the country's defense capabilities in the face of these evolving risks.
The overarching aim of this study is to examine the significance of climate change on military operations, with a particular emphasis on its effects on strategic and border regions. The research seeks to assess the potential consequences of climate change on military operational conditions and the efficiency of armed forces by analyzing climate data and employing predictive models. Ultimately, through a more nuanced understanding of regional dynamics and climate impacts, the study aims to facilitate more effective planning and the formulation of adaptive strategies. This approach will enable military forces to bolster their resilience against climate-induced challenges by implementing optimal solutions, thereby ensuring the success of military operations under fluctuating climate conditions.
 
Methodology
This study covers five western provinces of Iran, namely West Azerbaijan, Ilam, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Khuzestan. Climate data, including minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and sunshine hours, were collected from five synoptic stations in Ahvaz, Ilam, Kermanshah, Urmia, and Sanandaj, spanning the period from 1985 to 2014. The data were subsequently assessed for normality and completeness, with outliers, errors, and missing values being removed. To analyze uniform trends in the meteorological time series data, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was applied. Additionally, the trend slope (Q) for the variables of interest was determined using the nonparametric Sen’s Slope Estimator method.
 
Results and Discussion
The findings indicate that the proposed Military Climate Index (MCI) effectively predicts the impact of climate change on military operations. The analysis, which utilized the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope Estimator, revealed significant trends in temperature (both minimum and maximum) and precipitation across most months of the year. These trends include a consistent rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures and a reduction in precipitation in the studied regions. Furthermore, the MCI results for the Ahvaz station show that extreme summer temperatures result in a decline in the MCI index, reflecting more challenging conditions for military operations in this area. Conversely, late autumn and early winter are characterized by significantly more favorable conditions for military activities in this region.
 
Conclusion
This study underscores the significant impact of climate change on military operations, particularly in strategically critical regions. The findings highlight the need for military planners and policymakers to integrate climate forecasts into defense strategies, particularly regarding temperature fluctuations and changing precipitation patterns. The proposed Military Climate Index (MCI) has proven effective in predicting the challenges posed by climate change, helping to identify regions and periods where military operations could face increased difficulty. By using climate models and analyzing long-term meteorological data, this research emphasizes the importance of adaptive strategies to enhance the resilience of military forces. In regions like Ahvaz, where extreme summer heat exacerbates operational challenges, timely adaptation measures are crucial. Ultimately, this study calls for a comprehensive approach that not only prepares military forces for climate-induced disruptions but also capitalizes on the strategic opportunities that might arise from changing climatic conditions.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.