تحلیل اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر سیستم‌های حمل و نقل منطقه‌ای استان قزوین و ارائه راهکارهای تطبیقی با رویکرد توسعه حمل و نقل با استفاده از روش WASPAS

Climate change, as one of the most complex challenges of the 21st century, has had profound impacts on transportation systems. This study employs the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) method, an advanced multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies in the transportation network of Qazvin Province. The required data were collected through field studies and expert opinions, and analyzed using the WASPAS method. The findings reveal that the infrastructure resilience strategy (A1), with a final score of 0.873, is significantly superior to other alternatives (p < 0.05). This superiority is mainly attributed to its outstanding performance in the criteria of infrastructure resilience (perfect score of 1.00) and improved accessibility (perfect score of 1.00). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis with ±20% changes in the weights of the criteria confirms the stability of the results (coefficient of variation < 0.1). Comparative analysis with other methods (such as AHP and TOPSIS) demonstrates a high correlation (r = 0.89) in the final ranking. According to the results, enhancing infrastructure and adopting low-carbon technologies are identified as the most effective strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on transportation. This study provides a scientific framework for integrating climate considerations into transportation planning, which can serve as a basis for policymaking.

Climate change, as one of the most significant challenges of our time, has posed serious threats to transportation systems worldwide. This research focuses on Qazvin Province as one of Iran's key transit regions, comprehensively examining the impacts of climate change on the area's transportation infrastructure while employing the innovative WASPAS multi-criteria decision-making method to prioritize adaptive solutions. The current study presents an integrated framework for assessing vulnerability and resilience by combining two decades of climatic data from Iran's Meteorological Organization with field studies of infrastructure damage and input from 30 transportation and climate experts. Given the challenge of global warming and climate change, transportation needs to be resilient to increase the resilience of this sector, which is considered the most important and integral part of urban infrastructure. Given the increasing trend of global warming caused by the use of fossil fuels, greenhouse gases, etc., in the coming years, the transportation system will become resilient and meet the needs of future generations. On the other hand, increasing the resilience of transportation in the context of climate change is parallel to sustainable development and also achieves sustainable development goals.

Methodology

In this study, an advanced synthesis is used for the systematic analysis of climate change impacts on regional transport infrastructure. This methodology, with quantitative and qualitative interpretations, offers novel features for decision-making under uncertainty.

Given the existing transportation challenges, it is imperative to conduct precise assessments of climate change impacts on regional transport systems and develop effective mitigation strategies. In this context, Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods have proven to be powerful tools for evaluating and prioritizing various solutions. Among these, the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) method—which combines the Simple Weighted Sum (WSM) and Weighted Product (WPM) approaches—has been widely adopted due to its simplicity, flexibility, and high accuracy. However, the application of WASPAS in analyzing climate change impacts on regional transportation systems, particularly in less-developed areas such as Qazvin Province, has remained limited.

Results and discussion

Climate change poses significant challenges to transportation infrastructure in Qazvin Province. Quantitative analysis shows a 2°C temperature rise reduces road service life by 15-20%, while extreme precipitation events increase bridge scour risk by 40%.

The WASPAS methodology identified Alternative A1 (polymer-modified asphalt) as optimal with a score of 0.873. This solution demonstrates 95% improved thermal resistance and 30% reduced rutting potential. Economic analysis reveals a favorable benefit-cost ratio of 2.8 with a 3.2-year payback period.

Sensitivity analysis confirmed result robustness, with Kendall's W coefficient of 0.87 (p < 0.01). Monte Carlo simulations showed Alternative A1 maintained top ranking in 92% of scenarios despite parameter variations.

These findings provide empirical support for climate-resilient infrastructure planning, offering both theoretical and practical contributions to sustainable transportation development in semi-arid regions. The methodology demonstrates potential for application in other regions with similar climatic conditions.



Conclusion

This study employed the WASPAS (Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment) method as a multi-criteria decision-making approach to examine climate change impacts on regional transportation modes in Qazvin Province and develop mitigation strategies. By analyzing key criteria including greenhouse gas reduction, infrastructure resilience enhancement, operational cost reduction, and accessibility improvement, various solutions were evaluated and ranked. The results identified Alternative A1 with a final score of 0.873 as the optimal solution, demonstrating outstanding performance in both infrastructure resilience and accessibility improvement criteria, thereby emerging as an ideal option for sustainable regional transportation development.

The study demonstrated that implementing WASPAS-based strategies can effectively mitigate climate change impacts on regional transportation in Qazvin Province. The integration of technical, economic, and social solutions yields optimal outcomes and contributes to sustainable sectoral development. These findings provide a valuable framework for regional transportation planners and policymakers.



Funding

There is no funding support.



Authors’ Contribution

Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.



Conflict of Interest

Authors declared no conflict of interest.



Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.