Numerical Tracking of Middle Eastern Cyclones In the Cold Period of the Year



This paper deals with the numerical tracking of Middle Eastern cyclones. Cyclogensis regions and their movement tracks can be determined by respective algoritms. In this paper, re-analyzed NCEP data with the temporal resolution of 24 hours and the spatial resolution of 2.5 2.5 degrees, were used for the cold period (December, January, February, and March), of the years 1993-94 to 2002-03. The area study is located at 10oN-45oN and the longitude 0oE-65oE. An algorithm written in C++ language was used for locating the points, and ArcGIS software was utilized for drawing the tracks. As a result, Five main tracks were characterized as most important tracks originated from western and northwestern areas; each month exhibits its own particular climatology. In January, the tracks tend to extend along the northern Mediterranean area. In March, the Atlantic low pressures increase noticeably. Most of the tracks have two-or three-day lifetimes; the effect of topography factor on formation of cyclogenesis regions is more outstanding than on leading the tracks. Cyclones which enter Iran are along three main tracks and three sub-tracks. The most important track is the one that enters from the west, originating from Cyprus region; the frequency of occurrence of cyclones exhibits an ascending trend.