بررسی کارایی روش AHP در تعیین مناطق مستعد خطر سیلاب شهری (مطالعۀ موردی: بخش مرکزی شهر تربت‌ حیدریه)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربت‏ حیدریه

2 استادیار آبخیزداری، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربت‏حیدریه

3 استاد هیدرولیک، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

4 دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

شتاب شهرنشینی و افزایش مناطق غیرقابل نفوذ در شهرها اهمیتِ پرداختن به مسئلة سیلاب‏های شهری را بیش از پیش نمایان می‏کند. شهر تربت‏ حیدریه در سال‏های اخیر تحت تأثیر سیلاب و خسارت‏های ناشی از آن قرار گرفته است. هدف از این پژوهش پهنه‏بندی خطر سیلاب شهری به روش تحلیل سلسله‏مراتبی (AHP) است. هفت معیار برای اجرای این تحقیق انتخاب شد: ارتفاع، شیب منطقه، فاصله از کانال اصلی، تراکم کانال‏های زه‌کشی، کاربری اراضی، ظرفیت کانال‏های زه‌کشی، و وسعت مناطق تحت پوشش هر یک از کانال‏های اصلی. نتایج نشان داد پارامتر فاصله از کانال با وزن 328/0 بیشترین ارجحیت را در بین پارامترها دارد. در نقشة پتانسیل خطر، بیشترین مساحت مربوط به طبقة کم‏خطر (8/126 هکتار) و کمترین مساحت مربوط به طبقة خیلی پُرخطر (4/28 هکتار) به‏دست ‏آمده است. 99درصد از منطقة خیلی پُرخطر با طبقة شیب کمتر از 4درصد و 6/53درصد از آن با طبقة تراکم زه‌کشی بیشتر از 325 متر در هکتار همپوشانی دارد. برای مقایسة نتایج حاصل از AHP، از عمق آب‏گرفتگی در سه رگبار منجر به آب‏گرفتگی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بیشترین درصد قرارگیری صحیح نقاط شاخص در طبقات نقشة پتانسیل خطر سیلاب به ترتیب در شدت‏های بالا، متوسط، و کم است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the efficiency of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to specify the areas with urban flood risk potential, case study: the central part of Torbat Heydarieh

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohaddese Ghorbanzade 1
  • Maryam Azarakhshi 2
  • Abolfazl Mosaedi 3
  • Mohammad Rostami Khalaj 4
1 MSc in Watershed management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Torbat Heydarieh
2 Assistant Professor of Watershed management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Torbat Heydarieh
3 Professor of Hydrolics, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
4 PhD candidate in Watershed management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Runoff velocity is high in urban basins with smooth man-made channel and impermeable areas. As residential zones and various commercial and industrial activities are concentrated in urban areas, the potential of the flood losses are increasing in the cities. The first step in flood management is prepare flood risk zoning maps to show the probability of flooding in agricultural, residential, commercial and industrial land parcels. Multi-criteria evaluation methods are widely used in environmental science. One of these methods is Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) often used by many of researches to provide the flood risk mapping. In these studies, we have used several parameters to flood zoning such as distance from channels, depth of ground water, slope, population density, drainage density, runoff coefficient, land use, building and unbinding area, and etc. Several floods were happened in Torbat Heydariyeh in last year. The catastrophes caused damage and losses to local communities. Thus, it is necessity to study the flooding in this city. The aim of this research is to provide the flood risk mapping for the central part of Torbat Heydarieh by AHP method based on field observation.
 
Materials and methods
Torbat Heydarieh County with semi arid climate lies in northeast part of Iran, in58˚ 41' and 60˚ 07' E and 34˚ 59' to 35˚ 51' N. Mean Annual precipitation and temperature of Torbath Heydariyeh are 274 mm and 13.7˚C, respectively. The central part of the city has flooding problem, so the area with 352.3 ha was selected as study area.  In this research, the Analytical Hierarchy Process was used as one of the most comprehensive methods of multi criteria decision making. This process is considered as various options in decision making and it is able to do sensitive analytical method on criteria and sub criteria. The values of credit decisions are related to quantity and quality of questionnaire. In this research, we have identified the 7 parameters including elevation, slope, drainage density, land use, distance to channel, capacity of drainage channel and the area covered by each channel. The questionnaires have been completed by 14 experts. The matrix of binary comparison criteria was calculated by geometric average. To estimate consistency and the weight of criteria and sub-criteria, the final matrixes of binary comparison   were entered into Expert choice software. The weight of criteria and sub-criteria have been calculated and added to each map in GIS. The zoning map of flood risk was drawn with four classes: low risk, moderate risk, high risk and very high risk. To compare the results of AHP and actual situation of flooding, the depth of flood were measured in the index points in three shower events of 4/3/2014, 11/5/2014 and 1/10/2015. Then, to identify the accuracy of AHP flood risk zoning, the percentage of the adaptation between measured point and flood map risk was calculated in each shower.  
 
Results and discussion
The results of pairwise comparison between study criteria showed the classes including the slope lower than 2%, lower than 40 meters distance from main channel, lower than 1350 meter elevation, commercial and ministerial land use, drainage density upper than 325 m/ha, channel capacity lower than 0.5 m3/s and the area covered  by each channel; the weights of the factors are 0.599, 0.531, 0.379, 0.378, 0.382, 0.615 and 0.571 respectively. The map of flood risk zoning showed 126.79 ha, 118.30 ha, 78.62 ha and 28.42 ha of the study area in low, moderate, high and very high risk classes, respectively. Most of the measured flooded points were placed in moderate and high risk classes. The results of sensitive analysis showed distance from main channel as sensitive factor.
 
Conclusion
The results of this research indicated combination of GIS and AHP as effective tools to determine the areas with potentiality of flood in urban basins. The evaluation of potentiality of urban flood risk by AHP represented 67.75% of measured points of flood in high and moderate risk classes when rain intensity was increased. Thus, the results of urban flood risk zoning with AHP was acceptable. In central part of Torbat Heydarieh, the most important factor related to flooding was distance from main channel. In potential map of flood risk, the regions with very high and high risk were mostly near the main channels.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • flood hazard map
  • distance from main channel
  • Urban flood
  • Torbat Heydarieh
آقافرهادی، ع. و آموسی، ف. (1389). بررسی استفاده از سیستم GIS در کنترل سیلاب‏های شهری (مطالعة موردی بخش الموت استان قزوین)، کنفرانس ملی مدیریت سیلاب‏های شهری، تهران، ص 1-8.

امیدوار، ب.؛ غضبان، ف.؛ امامی، ک. و خدایی، ه. (1385). مدیریت ریسک سیلاب با استفاده از روش تصمیم‏گیری چندمعیاره در سه زیرحوضة استان گلستان، اولین همایش مقابله با سوانح طبیعی، 5 دی، تهران.

امیراحمدی، ا.؛ بهنیافر، ا. و ابراهیمی، م. (1390). ریز پهنه‏بندی خطر سیلاب در محدودة شهر سبزوار در راستای توسعة پایدار شهری، فصل‌نامة آمایش محیط، 16: 17ـ32.

حمیدی، ن.؛ وفاخواه، م. و نجفی، ا. (1391). تهیة نقشة خطر سیلاب شهری با استفاده از سامانة اطلاعات جغرافیایی و روش تصمیم‏گیری چندمعیارة مکانی، همایش ملی سامانه‏های سطوح آبگیر، 22 تا 23 آذر، مشهد، صص 1ـ8.

رستمی خلج، م. (1390). پهنه‏بندی خطر سیل شهری با استفاده از تلفیق مدل‏های هیدرولوژیکی و هیدرولیکی، پایان‏نامة کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، استاد راهنما: دکتر محمد مهدوی، دانشگاه تهران.

صالحی، ا.؛ رفیعی، ی.؛ فرزاد بهتاش، م. و آقابابایی، م.ت. (1392). پهنه‏بندی خطر سیلاب شهری با استفاده از GIS و فرایند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی (مطالعة موردی: تهران)، مجلة محیط‏شناسی، 39(3): 179-188.

قدسی‌پور، س.‌ح. (1384). فرایند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی AHP، تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر (پلی‌تکنیک تهران).

Aghafarhadi, A. and Amousi, f. (2011). The Consideration for Use of GIS System in the Control of City Flood Water, National conference of urban floods management, Tehran, Iran, PP.1-8.

AmirAhmadi, A.; Behniafar, A. and Ebrahimi, M. (2013). Microzoniation of flood risk in sabzevar suburd with the aim of sustainable urban development, Quarterly Journal of Environmental based territorial Planning, 16: 17-32.

Chan, F.; Chan, M. and Tang, N. (2000). Evaluation methodologies for technology selection, Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 107(1-3): 330-337.

Chen, Y.-R.; Yeh, C.-H. and  Yu, B. (2011). Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan, Natural hazards, 59(3): 1261-1276.

Fernández, D. and Lutz, M. (2010). Urban flood hazard zoning in Tucumán Province, Argentina, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis, Engineering Geology, 111(1): 90-98.

Ghanbarpour, M.; Salimi, S. and Hipel, K. (2013). A comparative evaluation of flood mitigation alternatives using GIS-based river hydraulics modelling and multicriteria decision analysis, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 6(4): 319-331.

GhodsiPour, S.H. (2005). Analytical Hierarchy Process, the Second Edition, Published by Amir Kabir University (Tehran Polytechnic), Iran.

Hamidi,  N.; Vafakhah, M. and Najafi, A. (2013). Urban Flood Hazard Mapping Using GIS and Spatial Multi-criteria Decision-making Methods, National Conference of Pond Systems, 12-13 December, Mashhad, PP. 1-8.

Omidvar, B.; Ghazaban, F.; Emami, K. and Khodaie, H. (2007). Flood Risk Management Using Multi-criteria decision-making Methods in Three Sub-basin in Golestan Province, The First Conference on Coping with Natural Disaster, 5 January, Tehran.

Paquette, J. and Lowry, J. (2012). Flood hazard modelling and risk assessment in the Nadi River Basin, Fiji, using GIS and MCDA, The South Pacific Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, 30(1): 33-43.

Rahmati, O.; Zeinivand, H. and Besharat, M. (2016). Flood hazard zoning in Yasooj region, Iran, using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 17(3): 1000-1017.

Rostami Khalaj, M. (2011).Mapping Urban Flood Hazard Using a Combination of Hydrological and Hydraulic Models, Ms.Thesis of Watershed Management Engineering, Supervisor: dr. Mahdavi, M., University of Tehran.

Salehi, E.; Rafii, Y.; Farzad Behtash, M.R. and Aghababai, M.T. (2013). Urban Flood Hazard Zonation Using GIS and Fuzzy-AHP Analysis (Case study: Tehran city), Journal of Environmental Studies, 39(3): 179-188.

Stefanidis, S. and Stathis, D. (2013). Assessment of flood hazard based on natural and anthropogenic factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Natural hazards, 68(2): 569-585.

Wang, Y.; Li, Z.; Tang, Z. and Zeng, G. (2011). A GIS-based spatial multi-criteria approach for flood risk assessment in the Dongting Lake Region, Hunan, Central China. Water resources management, 25(13): 3465-3484.