سنجش و ارزیابی جامعه شناختی تاب‏ آوری شهر ورامین در برابر مخاطرات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکدة علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکدة علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان

چکیده

از آنجا که تاب‏آوری به توانایی یک مجموعه برای بازگشت به شرایط طبیعی پس از وقوع بلا دلالت دارد، هدف از مطالعة حاضر سنجش و ارزیابی سطح تاب‏آوری شهر ورامین در مواجهه با مخاطرات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی از دیدگاه شهروندان آن است. این مطالعة توصیفی- تحلیلی، با مشارکت 393 نفر از شهروندان ورامین در پاسخ به پرسش‏نامه‏ای با آلفای کرونباخ 89/0، که بر اساس مؤلفه‏های چهارگانة محیطی، اقتصادی- اجتماعی، زیربنایی، و نهادی طراحی شده بود، انجام شده است. تحلیل آمار توصیفی و استنباطی هر یک از مؤلفه‏ها و شاخص‏های آن‏ها در نرم‏افزار SPSS21 با استفاده از آزمون One Sample T-test محاسبه و با استفاده از آزمون فریدمن اولویت‏بندی شد. نتایج حاصل از سنجش میزان تاب‏آوری شهر ورامین با تأکید بر مخاطرات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی نشان داد که میزان تاب‏آوری از دیدگاه شهروندان 15/2 بوده که از متوسط مطلوب پایین‏تر است و بیانگر این است که شهروندان ورامین را در برابر مخاطرات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی آسیب‏پذیر می‏دانند. همچنین، از دیدگاه شهروندان، مؤلفه‏های اقتصادی- اجتماعی و زیربنایی میزان تاب‏آوری بالاتری نسبت به مؤلفه‏های محیطی و نهادی دارند. بنا بر پیشنهادهای به‏دست‏آمده از شهروندان، همکاری دولت، نهادهای محلی، و سازمان‏های آموزشی برای آگاهی‏دادن به افزایش مشارکت‏ شهروندی در کاهش و سازگاری با اثرهای تغییرات آب‏وهوایی و بهبود تاب‏آوری شهری مؤثر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Measurement and Sociological Assessment of the Varamin City’s Resilience against Climate Change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdollah Faraji 1
  • Aliakbar Shamsipour 2
  • Sepideh Barzaman 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of human science, University of Zanjan
2 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran
3 PhD Student in Climatology, Faculty of Human Science, University of Zanjan
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Over the last decades, increased urbanization and lack of accurate and comprehensive planning for develop and rapid population growth have caused cities to face many challenges. Urban sprawl, which began in developed countries around 1950, is currently experienced in almost all countries. Many studies on the impacts of urban sprawl indicate the emergence of harmful effects from this phenomenon, one of the most important examples of which that has an environmental nature is climate change. Most urban settlements are prone to future shocks and tensions due to climate change, lack of energy, and global population growth. Urban managers and planners’ response to these shocks and the course of action that municipalities should take in order to adapt to upcoming accidents and dangers are now discussed in “resilient cities” topic. A good number of cities have not yet addressed climate risks due to lack of relevant city policies and action plans, outmoded regulations on urban planning, lack of capacity to respond to climate disasters, and no public awareness. The area of Urban Climate Resilience Practice represents the conjunction of WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities and World Resources Institute’s Climate Resilience Practice. As for Iran, urbanization trends have accelerated during last decades by a high rate of rural-urban migration along with rapid socio-economic and political changes, leading to unbalanced urban growth in the country. Since resilience refers to a system’s ability to return to its natural conditions following an accident, the purpose of the present study is to test and evaluate the level of resilience of Varamin City in the face of climate change from its citizens’ viewpoint.
Materials and Methodology
The present research used two types of data, the first being climate components, gathered from Varamin weather station (annual average rainfall, temperature, etc.), and the second, involving components relevant to urban sprawl, such as urban area, population density, and urban population. These parameters were obtained from questionnaires, filled out by a total of 393 citizens of Varamin, making this study a descriptive analytical one. The 35-item researcher-made questionnaire that served as the research tool for data collection was based on previous studies and contained appropriate items to test each of the components. In order to validate the research population, the questionnaire was investigated and reviewed by professors and experts in multiple steps and both its face and content validity got confirmed. For assessing the questionnaires’ reliability, at first, 30 copies of the questionnaire were answered by Varamin citizens in a preliminary research. The obtained information were inserted into SPSS 21 and each response was assigned a score of 0-5. Following this analysis, the questionnaire reliability got estimated by means of Cronbach’s alpha, giving a score of 0.89, designed based on the environmental, socio-economic, infrastructure, and institutional components. Also SPSS 21 helped analyzing and prioritizing both descriptive and inferential analytical statistics for each components’ resilience, whose indices got calculated by the same software program as well. For so doing, it first used one sample T-test and then prioritized them via Friedman test.
Results and Discussion
Today, the correlation between human societies and their natural environment is strongly affected by urbanization and urban development. Cities could be regarded as ecological units to be studied within the framework of a data-retrieval system. That means in order to meet various needs of citizens, the city inevitably needs to provide massive data in key inputs, the most important of which include energy, food, and water.
Results from measuring resilience of Varamin City with an emphasis on climatic aspects showed that from the citizens’ viewpoint, the resilience was 2.15, falling below the desirable average level. This by itself indicates that the citizens consider Varamin vulnerable to climate hazards. Results from investigating resilience components of Varamin City showed that the environmental component and its indices were lower than the average level, too, and –according to the citizens—intensified drought and changes in temperature had the most negative effects on the environmental condition of resilience in Varamin City. Moreover, according to the citizens, Varamin City is vulnerable to increased temperature and drought, both of which ought to be taken care of, if  urban resilience is to be boosted. Meanwhile, the citizens believed that socio-economic and infrastructure components had higher resilience levels, compared to the environmental and institutional ones. The socioeconomic component and most of its indices were above the average level. So, according to the citizens, helping the citizens in case of critical situations and kinship are really significant for socioeconomic resilience of Varamin City when faced with climate changes. Results from investigation of infrastructural component showed that this component and most of its indices were below the average level. Therefore, it can be stated that this city is not in a good condition in terms of its infrastructure and is vulnerable in this regard. Furthermore, according to the citizens, the index of “access to health centers” was the most significant infrastructural index. Investigating the resilience level of the institutional component showed that all indices of the institutional component fell short of the average. Furthermore, Friedman Test scores indicated that from the citizens’ viewpoint, the municipal services in creating green space along with their satisfaction from the performance of the organizations, in charge of informing the people for facing hazards, had the highest significance in the institutional resilience of Varamin City. Although apart from the socioeconomic components, other components in the present study were lower than the average level since the environmental and institutional components were the least resilient components, strengthening them should be top in priorities of urban development plans of Varamin City.
Conclusion
Since climate change and its effects are increasing more than before in human societies, especially in urban communities, it is very effective and essential to investigate the indices and components of resilience, evaluate them when urban communities face future climate crises, and take preventive measures. Furthermore, the increase of general knowledge regarding climate change motivates people to investigate the effects of this issue even more. Therefore, the serious cooperation of the government, local entities, educational organizations, municipalities, and the media in increasing the citizens’ awareness will make the citizens respond significantly to reduce and adapt to the consequences of climate change through their participation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • resilience
  • climate changes
  • Sustainable Development
  • Compatibility
  • Varamin
آروین، م. (1398). ارزیابی اثرات دلبستگی مکانی بر میزان تاب‏آوری اجتماعی در شهرها (مطالعة موردی: منطقة 12 کلان‏شهر تهران)، پژوهش و برنامه‏ریزی شهری، 10(۳۸): 77-88.
پریزادی، ط.؛ شیخ‏الاسلامی، ع. و کریمی ‏رزکانی ع. (1398). تحلیل وضعیت تاب‏آوری شهری در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (مورد مطالعه: شهر باقرشهر)، پژوهش و برنامه‏ریزی شهری، 10 (۳۷): 41-54.
حاتمی‏نژاد، ح.؛ عیوضلو، د. و خزائی‏زاده، ف. (1395). بررسی رابطة سرمایة اجتماعی و رضایت از کیفیت زندگی در فضاهای شهری (مطالعة موردی: منطقة 9 شهرداری تهران)، پژوهش‏های جغرافیای انسانی،  48(۲): ۳۴۹-361.
داداش‏پور، ه. و عادلی، ز. (1394). سنجش ظرفیت‏های تاب‏آوری در مجموعۀ شهری قزوین، مدیریت بحران، 4(۲): ۷۳-84.
رفیعیان، م.؛ رضایی، م.ر.؛ عسگری، ع.؛ پرهیزگار، ا. و شایان، س. (1390). تبیین مفهومی تاب‏آوری و شاخص‏سازی آن در مدیریت سوانح اجتماع‏محور، فصل‏نامة برنامه‏ریزی و آمایش فضا، 15(۴): ۲۸-41.
رمضان‏زاده لسبوئی، م. (1395). مبانی و مفاهیم تاب‏آوری شهری (مدل‏ها و الگوها)، مرکز مطالعات و برنامه‏ریزی شهری تهران.
روستایی، ش.؛ حقی، و.ح. و جداری، ا. (1398). ارزیابی میزان تاب‏آوری کالبدی محیط‏های شهری در برابر زلزله (نمونة موردی کلان‏شهر تبریز)،  11(۴۳): 121-141.
ساسان‏پور، ف.؛ آهنگری، ن. و حاجی‏نژاد، ص. (1397). ارزیابی تاب‏آوری منطقة 12 کلان‏شهر تهران در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی، نشریة تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی، ۴ (۳): ۸۵-98.
شکری فیروزجاه، پ. (1396). تحلیل فضایی میزان تاب‏آوری مناطق شهر بابل در برابر مخاطرات محیطی، برنامه‏ریزی توسعة کالبدی، ۲(۲): ۲۷-44.
صائمی‏پور، ح.؛ قربانی، م.؛ ملکیان، آ. و رمضان‏زاده لسبوئی، م. (1397). سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‏آوری ذی‏نفعان محلی در مواجهه با خشک‏سالی (منطقة مورد مطالعه: روستای نردین، شهرستان میامی، استان سمنان)، نشریة مرتع، 12(۱): ۶۲- 72.
طرح تفصیلی شهرستان ورامین (1393)، شرکت مهندسین مشاور پژوهش و عمران.
فرزاد بهتاش، م.ر.؛ کی‏نژاد، م.ع.؛ پیربابایی، م.ت. و عسگری، ع. (1392). ارزیابی و تحلیل ابعاد و مؤلفه‏های تاب‏آوری کلان‏شهر تبریز، نشریة هنرهای زیبا،  18(۳): ۳۳-42.
لنگرنشین، ع.؛ ارغان، ع. و کرکه‏آبادی، ز. (1398). سنجش شاخص‏ها و الگوهای اثرگذار در تاب‏آوری بافت‏های شهری تجریش، جنت‏آباد شمالی، و فردوسی شهر تهران، نگرش‏های نو در جغرافیای انسانی، 11(۳): 245-270.
ناظمی، ز.؛ قلعه‏نویی، م. و معززی مهرطهران، ا.م. (1394). طراحی فضاهای شهری تاب‏آور با تأکید بر جنبه‏های کالبدی- عملکردی، پایان‏نامة کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه هنر اصفهان.
Adger, W.N.; Hughes, T.P.; Folke, C.; Carpenter, S.R. and Rockström, J. (2005). Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science, 309(5737):1036-1039.
Aldrich, D.P. (2010). Fixing recovery: Social capital in post-crisis resilience, Journal of Homeland Security, Forthcoming.
Al-Nammari, F. and Alzaghal, M. (2015). Towards local disaster risk reduction in developing countries: Challenges from Jordan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 12: 34-41.
Asian Development Bank (2011). Asian Development Bank: Sustainability Report. Asian Development Bank.
Ayling, J. (2009). Criminal organizations and resilience, International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 37(4): 182-196.
Berkes, F.; Armitage, D. and Doubleday, N. (2007). Synthesis: adapting, innovating, evolving. Adaptive co-management: collaboration, learning and multi-level governance, pp.308-327.
Brand, F. and Jax, K. (2007). Focusing the meaning (s) of resilience: resilience as a descriptive concept and a boundary object. Ecology and society, 12(1).
Dadashpoor, H. Adeli, Z. (2016). Measuring the Amount of Regional Resilience in Qazvin Urban Region. Journal of Emergency Management, 4(2): 73-84.
Detailed plan of Varamin City (2014). Research & Development Consulting Engineers.
Farzad Behtash, M.R.; Keynejhad, M.A.; Pirbabaei, M.T. and Asgary, A. (2013). Evaluation and Analysis of Dimensions and Components of Tabriz Metropolis Resiliency, Honaryahe Ziba Memari va Shahrsazi, 18(3): 33-42.
Folke, C. (2006). Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global environmental change, 16(3): 253-267.
Fraser, E.D. (2003). Social vulnerability and ecological fragility: building bridges between social and natural sciences using the Irish Potato Famine as a case study. Conservation Ecology, 7(2).
Garschagen, M. and Kraas, F. (2011). Urban climate change adaptation in the context of transformation: lessons from Vietnam. In Resilient cities (pp. 131-139). Springer, Dordrecht.
George, D. and Mallery, P. (2010). SPSS for Windows step by step. A simple study guide and reference (10. Baskı).
Hatami Nejad, H.; Eyvazloo, D. and Khazaei Zadeh, F. (2016). Investigation on the Relationship between Social Capital and Satisfaction with Quality of Life in Urban Spaces (Case Study: Region Number 9, Tehran Municipality). Human Geography Research, 48(2): 349-361.
Hosseini, S.; Barker, K. and Ramirez-Marquez, J.E. (2016). A review of definitions and measures of system resilience. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 145: 47-61.
Kim, H. and Marcouiller, D.W. (2016). Natural disaster response, community resilience, and economic capacity: A case study of coastal Florida. Society & Natural Resources, 29(8): 981-997.
Klein, R.J.; Nicholls, R.J. and Thomalla, F. (2003). Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept?. Global environmental change part B: environmental hazards, 5(1): 35-45.
Lang, T. (2011). Urban resilience and new institutional theory–a happy couple for urban and regional studies?, In German annual of spatial research and policy 2010 (pp. 15-24). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Lowe, A.; Foster, J. and Winkelman, S. (2009). Ask the climate question: adapting to climate change impacts in urban regions.
Masten, A.S.; Powell, J.L. and Luthar, S.S. (2003). A resilience framework for research, policy, and practice. Resilience and vulnerability: Adaptation in the context of childhood adversities, 1(25):  1-26, doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511615788.003.
Nazemi, Z.; Ghalenoei, M. and Moazzezi Mehr Tehran, A.M. (2015). Design of resilient urban spaces with emphasis on physical-functional aspects, master's thesis at Isfahan Art University.
Parry, M.L. (2009). Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. Iied.
Parsons, L. (2016). Environmental Risk and Contemporary Resilience Strategies in Rural Cambodia. The Handbook of Contemporary Cambodia, p.146.
Rafeian, M.; Rezaei, M.R.; Asgari, A.; Parhizkar, A. and Shayan, S. (2012). Explaining the concept of resilience and its indexation in disaster management, The Journal of Spatial Planning, 15(4): 28-41.
Ramezanzadeh Lasboyee, M. (2016). Basics and Concepts of Urban Conservation (Models and Patterns), Tehran Center for Urban Studies and Planning.
Rose, A. (2004). Defining and measuring economic resilience to disasters. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 13(4): 307-314.
Saemipoor, H.; Ghorbani, M.; Malekian, A. and Ramazanzadeh Lasboei, M. (2018). Evaluating local beneficiary's resilience encountered with prolonged drought condition (Case study: Nardin village, Mayamey county, Semnan province). Journal of Rangeland, 12(1): 62-72.
Sasanpour, F.; Ahangari, N. and Hajinejad, S. (2017). Evaluation of the urban resilience against natural hazards in 12 region of Tehran Metropolis, Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazarts, 4(3): 85-98.
Shokri Firoozjah, P. (2017). Spatial Analysis of Resilience of Babol's Regions to Environmental Hazards, Journal Management System, 4: 17-44.
Smit, B. and Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global environmental change, 16(3): 282-292.
Suárez, M.; Gómez-Baggethun, E.; Benayas, J. and Tilbury, D. (2016). Towards an urban resilience Index: a case study in 50 Spanish cities. Sustainability, 8(8): -1-19, doi:10.3390/su8080774. 
World Bank (2010). Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: Synthesis report. Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.