تحلیل و پهنه‏ بندی مخاطرات ژئومورفولوژیک (لغزش و سیل) استان البرز با استفاده از مدل‏ هایVIKOR-AHP و FR

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری رشتۀ مخاطرات ژئومورفولوژیک، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه ‏ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه ‏ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دانشیار گروه برنامه‏ ریزی شهری، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

مخاطرات زمینی و ژئومورفیک از مخاطراتِ مهمِ طبیعی‏اند که سالیانه خسارات جانی و مالی زیادی در کل کشورهای جهان و به‏ویژه ایران به‏بار می‏آورند. ازاین‏رو، مطالعه و تهیة نقشة پهنه‏بندی مخاطرات امروزه یکی از اولویت‏های هر کشور به‏شمار می‏آید. در این تحقیق به بررسی مخاطرات زمین‏لغزش و سیل در سطح استان البرز پرداخته شده است. برای تهیة نقشة پهنه‏بندی خطر زمین‏لغزش استان، از مدل ترکیبی VIKOR-AHP و برای تهیة نقشة پهنه‏بندی خطر سیل از مدل نسبت فراوانی FR استفاده شد. سپس، به‏منظور داشتن دیدی کلی و جامع نسبت به وضعیت این مخاطرات، نقشة تلفیقی مخاطرات استان، که از همپوشانی دو نقشة پهنه‏بندی سیل و زمین‏لغزش است، با استفاده از مدل FUZZY تهیه شد. طبق نتایج نهایی حاصل از نقشه‏های پهنه‏بندی هر یک از مخاطرات، 09/33درصد سطح استان در پهنه با خطر زیاد زمین‏لغزش و 21/21درصد از سطح استان در پهنة خطر متوسط سیل قرار دارند که شناسایی و پهنه‏بندی مناطق دارای پتانسیل خطر وقوع این‏گونه مخاطرات اهمیت بسیاری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Geomorphologic Hazards of Landslide and Flood using VIKOR-AHP and Fr Models in the Alborz Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Khodadadi 1
  • Mojgan Entezari 2
  • Farzaneh Sasanpour 3
1 PhD Candidate in Geomorphological Hazards, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Natural hazards with their varieties and their extent of influence as repetitive and destructive phenomena have always been present through the life in the planet; they have always been a serious threat to human beings since the advent of mankind. Accordingly, it can be said that no community can be safe from natural hazards, and humans always suffer from objective and subjective harmful effects. Natural hazards by destroying income sources, biological resources, and people activity centers (houses, workshops, farms, etc.), increase their economic and physical harms. Related to the history of the hazards studies, the following notes could be mentioned.
Materials and methods
In this research, in order to make a zonation of the flood and landslide hazards in the Alborz Province based on the used models, the indices of each model were extracted to provide the risk map of these hazards. For the landslide hazard zonation of the Alborz Province, one of the outranking methods entitled VIKOR consensus optimization method is based on calculation of maximum utility and minimum losses. The susceptibility map of the sub-basins of the Alborz Province was prepared according to the occurrence of the landslide phenomenon. In order to study the flood hazard of the Alborz Province, we used the Frequency Ratio Model (FR). In order to perform these two models, it is necessary to extract the most important indices affecting the occurrence of the hazards. For this purpose, based on a deep investigation on previous studies in this field as well as the features of the study area, 9 indices were determined for landslide zoning by VIKOR-AHP compound model. The model is conducted via the layers of lithology, drainage density, soil type, precipitation, altitude, and distance from the fault, land use, dip gradient, and vegetation. For the flood zonnation using the frequency ratio model, we applied 11 indices including lithological factors, land use, distance from the river, soil type, the dip gradient, the dip direction, surface curvature map, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), drainage density, altitude and amount of precipitation. 
Results and discussion
In order to make a zonation of the risk of the landslide in the Alborz Province, we initially considered nine criteria regarding the basin tendency to land-sliding in sub-basins. After selecting the main criteria, in the next stage, the maps for each selected criterion were prepared for weighting and evaluating sub-basins in the GIS environment. Given the effects of the nine criteria in the occurrence of landslide, the criterion of distance from fault and vegetation cover have a decreasing effect and the other seven criteria have an increasing effect. After preparing the selected criteria, the significance coefficient of the mentioned criteria were determined by the AHP hierarchical algorithm based on the importance level of the landslide occurrence and basin susceptibility to this phenomenon. In this investigation, in order to make a weighting of the options based on the role of each criterion in the considered option, the definitive weighting was ranged from one to ten. Thus, weight 1 has the least effect and weight 10 the highest in the landslide risk evaluation. After determining the importance coefficient of the criteria, the weights decision matrix was prepared for the VIKOR algorithm. As it is known, the nine criteria are effective in evaluation of the watershed basins. Table 2 shows the decision matrix based on the effective parameters in the sub-basins. After weighting and preparing the weight matrix, the matrix values ​​were normalized.
Conclusion
The results of the landslide study in the Alborz Province indicates that in Taleghan and Karaj counties, the possibility of the occurrence of landslide is high due to the natural conditions of the region in terms of these indices. Since in these counties the precipitation conditions are relatively poor and vegetation is mainly of pasture type, there are no proper drainage conditions. The presence of less developed soils and almost impermeable bedrock, high altitude and relatively steep slope in these areas and the presence of frequent faults increased the occurrence possibility of landslide. Therefore, according to the output of the landslide zoning map, more than 60% of the area in these two counties is located in high-risk zones. The natural conditions in relation to the flood risk is persistent and some indices such as susceptibility to erosion, land use, rivers distance, amount of precipitation, altitude, precipitation, slope angle and slope direction have led to possibility of flooding in the Alborz Province. Consequently, due to the dominance of these indices in Taleghan, Karaj and Savojbolagh counties, the highest flood risk could be observed in these areas in order.
The Taleghan and Karaj counties are more susceptible and vulnerable to the geomorphic hazards; because the percentage of the high and high risk classes in these two counties is considerablly high. On the other hand, most of the habitat areas of the province are situated in high risk places in terms of flood and landslide hazards; it shows the necessities of more detailed planning to prevent the hazards and the related damages.
The results also indicated that  most urban and rural centers are established in high-risk zones. In order to reduce the probable losses, people should be aware of possible risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geomorphic hazards
  • VIKOR-AHP model
  • Frequency Ratio model
  • Alborz Province

دارابی، ح.؛ شاهدی، ک. و مردیان، م. (1395). تهیة نقشه‏های خطر احتمال و حساسیت سیل با استفاده از روش نسبت فراوانی در حوضة آبخیز پل دوآب شازند، نشریة علمی‏- پژوهشی مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز، 8(۱): ۶۸-۷۹.

سپهر، ع.؛ بهنیافر، ا.؛ محمدیان، ع. و عبدالهی، ا. (1392). تهیة نقشة حساسیت‏پذیری زمین‏لغزش دامنه‏های شمالی بینالود بر پایة الگوریتم بهینه‏سازی توافقی ویکور، پژوهش‏های ژئومورفولوژی کمی، ۲(۱): ۱۹-۳۶.

Arianpour, M. and Jamali, A. (2015). Flood Hazard Zonation using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) in GIS (Case Study:Omidieh-Khuzestan), European Online Journal of Natural and Sciences, 4(1): 39-49.

Bakhtyari kia, M.B.; Pirasteh, S.; Pradhan, B.; Mahmud, A.R.; Sulaiman, W.N.A. and Moradi, A. (2012). An artificial neural network model for flood simulation using GIS: Johor river basin, Malaysia, Environmental Earth Sciences, 67(1): 254-264.

Cao, Ch.; Xu, P.; Wang, Y.; Chen, J.; Zheng, L. and Niu, C. (2016). Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas, Sustainability,  8(9): 948-966.

Crozier, M.J. (2017). A proposed cell model for multiple-occurrence regional landslide events: Implications for landslide susceptibility mapping, Geomorphology,  295: 480-488.

Darabi, H.; Shahedi, K. and Mardian, M. (2016). Preparation of flood probable risk and susceptibility maps using the frequency ratio method in the watershed basin of Do-ab Bridge of Shazand, Watershed Engineering and Management,  8(1): 68-79.

Jiménez-Perálvarez, J.D.; El Hamdouni, R.; Palenzuela. J.A.; Irigaray, C. and Chacón, J. (2017). Landslide-hazard mapping through multi-technique activity assessment: an example from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain), Landslides,  14(6): 1975-1991.

Ghafory, M. (2005). Earthquake Risk Management Strategic: The Iranian Experience, Tehran, UNESCO Office and International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEEs), PP. 1-9

Karimi Sangchini, E.; Ownegh, M.; Sadaldin, A. and Mashayekhan, A. (2012). Probabilistic Landslide Risk Analysis and Mapping (Case Study: Chehel-Chai Watershed, Golestan Province, Iran), Journal of Rangeland Science,  2(1): 425-438.

Khosravi, KH.; Nohani, E.; Maroufinia, E. and Pourghasemi, H.R. (2016). A GIS-based flood susceptibility assessment and its mapping in Iran: a comparison between frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence bivariate statistical models with multi-criteria decision-making technique, Nat Hazards,  83(2): 947-987.

Kumar, R. and Anbalagan, R. (2015). Landslide susceptibility zonation in part of Tehri reservoir region using frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and GIS, Journal Earth System Sciences,  124(2): 431-448.

Leonardi, G.; Palamara, R. and Cirianni, F. (2016). Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using a Fuzzy Approach, World Multidisciplinary Civil Engineering-Architecture-Urban Planning Symposium 2016, Procedia Engineering, 161: 380-387.

Li, L.; Lan, H.; Guo, Ch.; Zhang, Y.; Li, Q. and Wu, Y. (2016). A modified frequency ratio method for landslide susceptibility Assessment, Landslides, 14(2): 727-741.

Malekian, A. and Azarnivand, A. (2016). Application of Integrated Shannon’s Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran, Water Resources Management, 30(1): 409-425.

Pellicani, R.; Van Westen, C.J. and Spilotro, G. (2014). Assessing Landslide Exposure in Areas with Limited Landslide Information, Landslide, 11(3): 463-480.

Rahmati, O.; Pourghasemi, H.R. and Zeinivand, H. (2015). Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models in the Golastan Province, Iran, Geocarto International, 31(1) 42-70.

Ramesh, V. and Anbazhagan, S. (2014). Landslide susceptibility mapping along Kolli hills Ghat road section (India) using frequency ratio, relative effect and fuzzy logic models, Environmental Earth Sciences, 73(12): 8009-8021.

Sepehr, A.; Behniafar, A.; Mohammadian, A. and Abdollahi, A. (2013). Preparing susceptibility map of landslide in northern Binalud hillsides based on VIKOR consensus optimization algorithm, Journal of Quantitative geomorphological researches, 2(1): 19-36.