شناسایی تیپ‌های هوای جزیره ابوموسی جهت طرح‌ریزی و اجرای عملیات آب‌خاکی

ABSTRACT
Having sufficient information about the operation area is one of the most important and key success factors in planning, directing and successfully implementing operations, and this issue is of double importance, especially regarding the weather conditions of the area, in water and soil operations. In order to conduct research and identify the weather types of Abu Musa Island, in order to plan and implement hydrological operations, the data related to 18 weather variables in a period of 30 years (1991-2021) as well as the average and maximum strength of the sea in one day have been used. In order to statistically analyze the data and obtain the statistical characteristics of each weather type, MATLAB software was used and to identify the weather types, weather elements were subjected to cluster analysis by integration method. After conducting trial and error operations to select the number of air brigade groups, four air brigades were finally identified for this island. Hierarchical analysis has been used to determine the most suitable and worst type of weather. The results showed that based on the pairwise comparison of weather elements to determine the priority of the air force to carry out soil dredging operations, the elements of wind speed and horizontal visibility were assigned the highest weight and the most effective weather elements in soil dredging operations were identified. After forming the decision matrix, the weight of each of the specific weather types and the moderate weather type with the maximum sea power with a weight of 0.343 with the activity period in the late winter and early spring season was estimated as the worst weather type for carrying out dredging operations in Abu Musi Island
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Atmospheric conditions and characteristics are components of investigating the operation area in military units; its results lead to the estimation of intelligence plans and are examined in all types of activities and military operations in each area. The investigation of the operation area is more critical in amphibious operations due to the simultaneous implementation in the sea and on land and the involvement of naval and ground forces. An amphibious operation is a planned attack from the sea, carried out by the navy and the disembarking force stationed in ships to the enemy's coast or the coast occupied by the enemy. This type of operation leads to the disembarkation of the force on the coast. This operation is highly sensitive, and any mistake in planning will lead to its failure. Abu Musa Island is the southernmost land of Iran in the Persian Gulf, and due to its strategic location, it is of high military, economic, and political importance. Any amphibious operation on this island requires accurate knowledge of the weather conditions.
 
Materials and Methods
In order to carry out this research, first, an exploratory study was conducted regarding the subject of the research, and the field manuals related to seafaring and the subject of the research were reviewed, as well as the opinion of experts in this field. In the following, 18 climatic elements have been applied in 30 years (1991-2021), as well as the average and maximum sea strength in one day, to identify the weather types of Abu Musa Island. The data relating to climatic elements were received from the Meteorological Organization. MATLAB software was exerted to ensure the correctness of the received data and for the statistical analysis. The maximum and average daily wind speed was used to identify the strength of the sea. In order to identify whether types and elements of maximum and minimum wind speed were subjected to cluster analysis, after extracting the air types in Abu Musa Island, a hierarchical analysis method was used to prioritize them for planning and implementing amphibious operations.
Results and discussion
Four types of weather affect Abu Musa Island throughout the year, and the frequency of hot, cloudy, and foggy weather types has turned out to be the highest. On the other hand, clear and calm air type has the lowest frequency throughout the year by examining the average climatic elements for each. From the weather types in Abu Musa Island, it can be seen that temperature, humidity, sea power, and precipitation have the most significant influence on the development of the air types of this island, and the average of each of these elements in the air types is a good indicator of this.
The high speed of the wind and the high level of sea power are the essential characteristics of this type 1, which may disturb the evacuation in the ports and make the conditions of the beach unsuitable for disembarkation and the possibility of paratroopers to disembark. These conditions make it difficult to guide vessels. In addition, the possibility of naval fire support reduces the accuracy of weapons fire, affects the implementation of smoke operations to disembark forces on the beach, and increases the number of human casualties during the disembarkation. The highest amount of precipitation occurs in type 2. During the rain, the visibility decreases, making it difficult for helicopters and airplanes to fly, and despite providing cover and surprise, it does not provide suitable conditions for close air support of ground troops. Rainfall has negatively affected radio communications, disrupting reconnaissance flights and radar, image, and infrared data collection systems. During the rainy season, the disembarkation forces on the beach face problems, and capturing the bridgehead in the first stage of the operation becomes complicated. This, in turn, increases the human loss of lives in friendly troops.
In Type 3, humidity and high air temperature reduce the efficiency of the crew, equipment, and vessels and severely reduce the endurance of the disembarking force on the beach. The number of fog occurrences, is suitable for surprising the enemy and creating concealment and cover. However, it is not suitable for air support and guiding vessels. This condition reduces direct vision and targeting for vessels. Moreover, the effectiveness of radars reduces the detection of targets. In type 4, the temperature and humidity of the air are still high, and this issue has a negative effect on the endurance of the landing forces and the crew of the vessels. Despite this disadvantage, the sea is calm, and sea power and wind are suitable for carrying out amphibious operations. It was found that wind speed and horizontal visibility are essential in amphibious operations and decisive for the operation's success.
 
Conclusion
Any amphibious operation in types 1 and 2 requires a detailed investigation of the weather during the exercise or operation. At this time, the changes in sea strength, cloudiness, and rainfall are high. Also, the fog created on the sea reduces visibility. In Type 4, both the air temperature and the rainy conditions have dropped a bit, and the amount of rainfall and wind speed and, accordingly, the power of the sea is also low. Thus, it creates suitable conditions for this operation compared to other types of weather and in case of proper planning. It will also bring a favorable result. Based on the paired comparison of climatic elements to determine the priority of the air type for carrying out amphibious operations, the element of wind speed and horizontal visibility was given the highest weight. The most effective climatic elements in amphibious operations and the moderate weather type with the maximum sea power were identified. Type 1 is the worst in late winter and early spring, and clear and calm weather type (Type 4) is the best. The suitable time for planning and implementing amphibious operations was determined in October and November.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.